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On April 26 the European Policy Centre held a Post-EP election briefing. Carina Statulat, Senior Policy Analyst claimed that the result of the election showed ‘business as usual’.  

The turnout of voters was not higher than previous years: citizens did not find the election meaningful and young people voted for parties they identify with. This has implications for the EP as the only directly elected institution, their representation and legitimacy for the next President and for the political processes at national level.

Anti EU populist forces were predicted to win big: the division was big between the far right, far left and populists – in total they won 24%. The EU sceptics can be divided into the ‘hard-core’ (e.g. in UK, FR) and the ‘soft’ ones (e.g. in UK, PL, BE). The question is if the hard-core can gather 7 countries (e.g. SE will likely not join until after their national elections in Sep). Further, there is also the radical left (e.g. in GR, ES, PO)

The EP won’t ‘shutdown’. Instead the ‘Europhiles’ will continue, because the numbers don’t add up (of the populist/extreme), and even if they would create a party group they are heterogenic and unstable and have low cohesion rates. Previous experience has shown e.g. that they vote against each other, don’t write reports or push for amendments. We should be concerned though because they will get increased visibility, may chair Committees, impact debates (especially on migration), influence national politics and move the economic and financial crisis further to a political crisis.

Janis A. Emmanouilidis, Director of Studies believes that there was more attention to the EP elections this time but that it was hard to draw conclusions from the turnout considering in some countries citizens had to vote for national elections as well and this may have contributed to higher turnout. The rise of anti-EU forces show how citizens voted as a protest against the EU, euro, immigration, free trade, establishment etc. The consequences are partly on the EP in terms of coherence but mostly it will affect the national level (e.g. The Front National weakens the French President etc.). Mr Emmanouilidis believes that the next Commission President will be an institutional battle between the Council and the EP and his prediction is that none of the candidates will get the job. If the process of election is delayed it will prove EU inefficiency in taking action and result in long term negative consequences for the EU as a project.

Read the full report by EPC (PDF)